October 22, 2005Release: November 2, 2005
Organization: The National Election Data Archive (NEDA)

The Gun is Smoking:
Ohio Exit Poll Data Provides Virtually
Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount

Summary: New analysis of the precinct-level Ohio exit poll data provides virtually irrefutable evidence of large scale vote miscounts in Ohio during the 2004 presidential election. 6% of Ohio's exit-polled precincts had impossible vote counts and 57% had significant discrepancies (a less than 5% chance of occurring in any one precinct). The pattern of Ohio's exit poll results is not consistent with any exit poll error hypothesis. However, it is consistent with pro-Bush vote miscounts.

NEDA's full paper "The Gun is Smoking: Ohio Precinct-level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount" is available at http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf

In two Ohio precincts, even if all voters who did not complete exit polls had voted for Bush, the total Bush vote count would have been less than the official count. In a third precinct, all voters who did not complete exit polls would have had to vote for Bush to equal the official count. Unless Bush voters lied much more than Kerry voters on exit polls, or massive exit poll error occurred that was not detected by the pollsters, the results are mathematically impossible.

The Ohio exit poll data are a smoking gun for vote miscounts in Ohio. Ohio exit poll results are consistent with earlier findings of similar unexplained and implausible exit poll discrepancies in the national exit poll sample as described in the January 21, 2005 Edison/Mitofsky report.

For these reasons, NEDA urges

1) public release of all detailed exit poll data and methodologies by Edison/Mitofsky so that independent analysts may determine whether possible vote fraud occurred or not;

2) routine public posting on the Internet of accessible detailed election results (at the precinct level broken out by absentee, early, provisional, and Election Day counts) by local election officials as soon as polls close, to enable independent analysts to identify precincts with possible vote count errors in time to contest elections;

3) routine independent audits of vote count accuracy in all elections to detect and correct errors that might be deliberately or innocently introduced by insiders; and

4) widespread media coverage of this vitally important issue.

The data that NEDA analyzed was provided in the Election Sciences Institute (ESI) June 6, 2005 report, "Ohio Exit Polls: Explaining the Discrepancy"


NEDA's full paper "The Gun is Smoking: Ohio Precinct-level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount" is available at http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf

The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is a nonprofit organization of statisticians and mathematicians devoted to the accuracy of U.S. vote counts. Please see http://ElectionArchive.org for more information.

Contacts: Kathy Dopp kathy@uscountvotes.org 435-658-4657 or cell 917-656-0066 and Ron Baiman ron@uscountvotes.org

NEDA is seeking funds to implement a new national election data archive in order to collect and publicly distribute detailed election data to pinpoint possible vote miscounts immediately following elections. http://electionarchive.org/donate.html

For common-sense ways to ensure accurate vote counts in America read this short 2 page recommendation: http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/election_officials/Audits_Monitoring.pdf

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